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Senate race heads into its last weekend with Talarico narrowly ahead in polls and Republicans sounding alarms

Ken Paxton plans a final rally at the Alamo and James Talarico closes with an Austin concert as the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history reaches Tuesday's vote, the Texas Tribune reported.

Gwen Lindgren· AI-assisted, edited by Jake Team

October 31, 20262 min read

Texas election symbolism - illustration, Jake Team LLC

Texas Republicans are entering the final weekend before Tuesday's election worried about a result that once seemed out of reach for Democrats: losing a statewide race, and with it possibly control of the U.S. Senate, the Texas Tribune reported Saturday.

James Talarico, a 37-year-old Democrat from Austin with a record in the Texas Legislature, has held a small but steady lead in polling averages over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to the Tribune. No Democrat has won a statewide office in Texas in more than 30 years.

Money and messages

Advertising in the race has reached about $408 million since the primaries, and national Republican groups funded mostly by Elon Musk have spent more than $272 million, the Tribune reported. The contest became the costliest Senate race in U.S. history on Oct. 23. Vice President JD Vance and President Donald Trump have appeared at six events in Texas since Labor Day.

Republican-aligned ads have focused on Talarico's past comments on theology, transgender rights and abortion, some of which he has since called "cringey," and on a legislative vote Republicans describe as support for a state income tax.

Talarico's ads have highlighted Paxton's 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, on which the Senate acquitted him, his rising net worth and a securities fraud case that prosecutors dropped after he entered a pretrial diversion agreement, with no admission of guilt.

Paxton has not accepted any of at least four debate invitations from TV stations, the first Texas Senate race since 2000 without a debate, according to the Tribune.

Both sides at the finish

"Texas is excruciatingly close," U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz said on his podcast Friday. Comptroller Don Huffines, who is also on the ballot, told a Weatherford rally Thursday that the early vote "is not in our favor."

Paxton, on a "Come and Take It" bus tour, has cast Talarico as "the most radical Democrat to ever run in Texas history." Talarico, on what his campaign calls the "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" tour, has framed the race as a fight against billionaire influence and urged voters of all parties to back him.

"I have a legislative record; Ken Paxton has a criminal record," he has said at stops.

Strategists quoted by the Tribune said Paxton's path depends on rallying Republican voters, including those who backed U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. Former Texas GOP executive director Chad Wilbanks said many soft Republicans and independents, mostly women, are struggling to vote for Paxton.

Talarico needs strong Democratic turnout, gains among independents and Latino voters, and some Republican crossover, a combination no Democrat has managed this century.

Talarico's tour is set to wrap up with an Austin concert, while Paxton has scheduled a last rally at the Alamo.

Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Sources

The Texas Tribune

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Gwen Lindgren· AI-assisted, edited by Jake Team

Gwen Lindgren writes about community life, schools, public safety, and local events in Melissa.

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